Probabilidad de supervivencia [cerrado]

There is an island represented by a matrix. You are somewhere on the island at location (x,y). If you jump n times, what is the probability you will survive? Survival means after n jumps you must be on the island.

My solution: I applied flood fill algorithm in which I allowed to move in all directions (i.e. N, W, E, S) and checked if before n jumps I was off the island then increment the failure counter, otherwise increment the success contrarrestar.

After iterating all the possible paths, the answer is ((success)/(success + failure)). It takes exponential time.

My question from you is can we do this problem in polynomial time, by using dynamic programming or any other programming technique? If yes, can you give me the concept behind that technique?



using namespace std;

double probability_of_survival(int n, int m, int x, int y, int jumps) {
    int success = 0;
    int failure = 0;
    probability_of_survival_utility_func(n, m, x, y, 0, jumps, &sucess, &failure);
    return (double)((success)/(failure+success));

void probability_of_survival_utility_func(int n, int m, int x, int y, int jump_made, int jumps, int *success, int *failure) {
    if(x > m || x < 0 || y > n || y < 0) { (*failure)++; return;}
    if(jump_made == jumps) { (*success)++; return;}
    probability_of_survival_utility_func(n, m, x+1, y, jump_made++, jumps, success, failure);
    probability_of_survival_utility_func(n, m, x, y+1, jump_made++, jumps, success, failure);
    probability_of_survival_utility_func(n, m, x-1, y, jump_made++, jumps, success, failure);
    probability_of_survival_utility_func(n, m, x, y-1, jump_made++, jumps, success, failure);

preguntado el 28 de agosto de 12 a las 13:08

Puedes definir supervivencia? What conditions should be met in order for you to survive? -

So to paraphrase: You basically start somewhere on the island and you have to find the probability that a random walk of n steps won't ever leave the island? Also I think you mean brute force, not flood fill, because a flood fill would be O(n^2). -

As stated your problem is trivial. If the man is standing on the island and if the island has size at least 2x1 then the man jumps to the neighbouring location, then back again, and repeats the process n times. If the island is only 1x1 the man is just plain out of luck. -

amit, Survival means after n jumps you must be on the island, not in the water, cry for help :P -

For better understanding of my approach, I posted my code. -

2 Respuestas

The problem is neatly described by a Markov matrix. Translate the problem into a graph the following way. Map the rows of the matrix onto the coordinates, that is, for every possible (x,y) -> i. Build a symmetric adjacency matrix A tal que (i,j)=1 if and only if the sites (x1,y1)->i, (x2,y2)->j are connected. All death sites will map to a single site and have the property such that A[i,i]=1, A[i,j!=i]=0 i.e it is an adsorbing states. Row normalize the matrix. With a starting vector p=[0,0,0,...,1,...,0,0] where the one corresponds to the starting position take the product:

 (A**k) . p

And sum over the live sites, this will give you the survival probability. For analysis, the number of note here is n, the number of alive sites on the island. Complexity is neatly bound, the most expensive operation is matrix exponentiation A**k. Naively this can be done in O(n**3 * k), but I suspect that you can diagonalize the matrix first at a cost of O(n**3) and exponentiate the eigenvalues.

Ejemplo visual:

An island, with a red start point and it's adjacency matrix:

enter image description here

the calculated survival probability as a function of steps:

enter image description here

Implementación de Python:

from numpy import *

# Define an example island
L = zeros((6,6),dtype=int)
L[1,1:2] = 1
L[2,1:4] = 1
L[3,1:5] = 1
L[4,2:4] = 1

# Identify alive sites
alive = zip(*where(L))
N = len(alive)

# Map the entries onto an index for easy access
ID = dict(zip(alive, range(N)))

# Create adj. matrix, the final index is the dead site
def connect(x, horz, vert):
    s = (x[0]+horz, x[1]+vert)
    if s not in ID: A[ID[x], N] += 1
    else          : A[ID[x], ID[s]] += 1
A = zeros((N+1,N+1))
for x in alive:
    connect(x,  1, 0)
    connect(x, -1, 0)
    connect(x,  0, 1)
    connect(x,  0,-1)

# Define the dead site as adsorbing, and row normalize
A[N,N] = 1
A /= A.sum(axis=1)[:,newaxis]

# Define the initial state
inital = (3,2)
p0 = zeros(N+1)
p0[ID[inital]] = 1

# Compute survival prob. as a function of steps
steps = 20
A2 = A.copy()
S = zeros(steps)
for t in xrange(steps):
    S[t] = 1-dot(A2.T,p0)[-1]
    A2   = dot(A2, A)

# Plot results
import pylab as plt
LSHOW = L.copy()
LSHOW[inital] = 2
plt.plot(range(steps), S,'ro--')

Respondido el 20 de junio de 20 a las 10:06

Yep, this is my canonical markov matrix example, so it makes sense to do it this way! - argentage

f(x,y,0) = 0     if (x,y) is not in the island
           1     otherwise

f(x,y,i) = 0     if (x,y) is not in the island
           otherwise: 1/4 * f(x+1,y,i-1) + 
                      1/4 * f(x-1,y,i-1) + 
                      1/4 * f(x,y+1,i-1) + 
                      1/4 * f(x,y-1,i-1)

Using Dynamic programming you can create 2n+1 x 2n+1 x n+1 3-dimensional array,and filling it according to this formula, starting from i=0 and making you way up until i=n.

Your solution at the end is f(0,0,n) in the array. (Remmeber to set the original (x,y) as (0,0) in your coordinates, and make the needed adjustments).

La complejidad es O(n^3) - the size of the matrix.

Note, this solution is pseudopolinomio, so if any future answers shows this problem is NP-Hard (no idea if it is) - it does not contradict it.

P.S. For real implementations - if you need exacto answer - be very careful when using double precision numbers - especially for large number of steps, since the carried numerical error might become significant.

Respondido el 10 de junio de 13 a las 15:06

You don't need to make adjustments to the coordinate system. Also you can get away with O(n^2) memory, by only storing 2 levels of the array. Since you only ever access i y i-1. - JPvdMerwe

Can you tell what the compexity of my code is?? I think exponential - devsda

@JPvdMerwe: I agree according to the 2nd - but note that it does not change the hora complexity, the 1st just seems simpler IMO - but might be subjective. - amit

@jhamb: I believe you are correct. You are trying all possible routes. There are exponential number of those, and thus the solution is indeed exponential. - amit

@jhamb: Also: some optimizations could be taken place: You might be able to reduce the size of the matrix, I don't think you need (-100,-100,0) if the island is a square of size 10 around (0,0). This can significantly reduce the run time. - amit

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